In the past week, the stock markets were supported by the strong balance sheets announced in the US, the prospects for progress in negotiations between China and the US this week, and the expectation that major central banks will take steps to loosen their monetary policies. Oil prices increased gains in the Middle East due to concerns about Iran’s supply cuts, while the decline in US crude oil inventories supported expectations. LME metals, which were priced at 25 basis points interest rate cut by FED in the past few weeks, left behind a week where sales pressure was intense due to the ongoing uncertainties regarding the global economy and demand and the strong dollar pressure. The LME copper closed the week at 1.83% at $ 5966. The ECB did not change interest rates at its meeting, which ended on Thursday. However, the fact that President Draghi pointed out the deterioration in the economic growth outlook and stated that the monetary policy would be loosened and even pointed out that the inflation target, which forms the basis of the monetary policy would be revised, formed the expectation that the interest rate cut in the markets was almost certain. The euro closed the week at 1.1125, with a 0.85% loss against the dollar. The dollar index tested the peak of two weeks, while the pound sterling fell to 1.2210 after increasing losses after being elected as the new prime minister of Britain, the new president of the ruling Conservative Party in Britain. The markets, which are waiting for the FED meeting to end on July 31, started the new week with a mixed outlook. Despite the weighted trend in the European indices, the FTSE100 closed at around 2% premium. On the US side, while Dow Jones rose, losses were seen in S&P and Nasdaq.
Yesterday, as the economic data is inactive, personal income, consumer confidence index and pending home sales data will be monitored today. Later in the week, the data calendar contains very important data. China, Germany, Euro Zone production PMI data, Euro Zone GDP and inflation, ADP employment data in the US, production PMI and ISM, construction spending, trade balance, durable goods orders and most importantly non-agricultural employment will be announced. The FED interest rate decision, which will be announced tomorrow, and the following statements may be the most critical development of the week. The FED is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the details of the announcement and the way in which interest rate cuts will be followed in the coming months will be developments that will create mobility in the market.
As a result of the negotiations between the US and China this week, the future announcements are important in terms of metal prices. The LME copper, which has gained support from the $ 5950 levels in the past week, tested these levels again at the opening of the new week. However, it turned its direction upwards with hopes for the China-US meeting. Despite the strength of the dollar, LME copper continues to trade around the $ 6000 level. The market is waiting before the FED decision and other economic data. The $ 5950 and $ 5930 levels with a 50-day average can be traced as support. $ 6070 and $ 6170 will be the closest targets if the FED releases a tone of more supportive, more-than-expected pigeons.